Per the Associated Press, China’s Commerce Ministry on Wednesday said it would attach export controls to drones that could be converted and deployed on the battlefield, as well as certain equipment, such as infrared lasers.

At the same time, the country will lift unspecified temporary restrictions on certain consumer drones. About a year ago, China imposed export controls on both civilian and military drones that could be used for “non-peaceful purposes.”

The changes will take effect on September 1.

Western countries have been angling for greater restrictions on China, which is the world’s largest exporter of consumer drones, but sanctions and export controls have not entirely quelled concerns.

For example, DJI, the country’s largest drone manufacturer, suspended direct sales to Russia and Ukraine, but the company’s aircraft are still reaching the battlefield. In response, the U.S. has sanctioned individual Chinese companies suspected of supplying Russia with drones via third-party networks and countries, such as through Iran.

U.S. lawmakers have been particularly harsh on Chinese drone manufacturers, comparing DJI to TikTok and pushing for an array of restrictive bills.

One measure, the American Security Drone Act, was even included in the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), barring procurement of Chinese drones by federal agencies.

Another bill, the Countering CCP Drones Act, aims to add DJI, Autel, and other Chinese manufacturers to the Federal Communication Commission’s covered list, which would effectively end all new sales to the U.S. at both the federal and consumer levels. Some U.S senators are working to get the legislation added to next year’s NDAA.

The anti-China bills come amid FBI and Department of Homeland Security assessments that the drones could pose a cybersecurity threat, coupled with allegations that the aircraft are using their cameras to spy on Americans and transmit data back to China.

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Ukraine is ready to take its military drone production to the next level, according to comments from Oleksandr Kamyshin, the Ukrainian minister of strategic industries who oversees the country’s defense industry.

Speaking at the NATO-Industry Forum in Stockholm this week, Kamyshin said Ukraine is preparing to produce thousands of the uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) every month. The aircraft have been widely deployed by both Ukraine and its Russian adversaries over the course of the war in Eastern Europe, which entered its 21st month this week.

“By the end of this year, it would be dozens of thousands [of drones] a month,” Kamyshin said. “And that’s something we grow even faster than conventional warfare ammunition and warfare weapons.”

What Ukraine Already Has in the Sky

Kamyshin did not provide an estimate of Ukraine’s current drone output. But the country’s forces have relied upon a wide variety of the aircraft, including suicide or kamikaze drones, such as U.S.-made Switchblade loitering munitions; large combat UAVs such as Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2; insect-sized surveillance drones such as Norway’s Black Hornet; and hobbyist or first-person-view drones from China’s DJI.

Frequently, Ukraine deploys the aircraft in swarms, with the goal of overwhelming Russian air defenses and hitting key targets—the idea is to “exhaust” the enemy, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy put it.

Often, air defenses will neutralize smaller swarms. But occasionally, one or a handful will get through, striking enemy soldiers or assets. Drones have also allowed Ukraine to hit targets deep within Russian territory—including in Moscow.

“There is such a wide range of different types of drones, with such wide accessibility, that they are becoming a new category separate and different from manned aviation, yet integrated with ground operations,” Audrey Kurth Cronin, director of Carnegie Mellon University’s Institute for Security and Technology, told FLYING. “Just because drones fly in the air does not mean they are just like advanced aircraft. That is not the case.”

Buying Local

Toward the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine largely relied on foreign-made drones. However, in recent months the focus has turned to boosting local production. Kamyshin at the NATO-Industry Forum said all of the country’s defense production capabilities have increased greatly. But they’re still short of what’s required.

“Speaking about shells, for instance, we produce times more now than for the whole (of) last year,” he said.

One way the country has ramped up drone production is through the “Army of Drones” initiative, which launched in July 2022 through a partnership between Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation and United24, a Ukrainian government-run fundraising platform.

The initiative has loosened import restrictions and taxes for UAV technology, which has fostered a friendly environment for local drone manufacturers. Companies and individuals can donate money or “dronate” certain models directly to the military. American actor Mark Hamill, best known for playing Luke Skywalker in the Star Wars franchise, serves as ambassador of United24 and is helping to raise funds himself.

Ukrainian drone units supported by the Army of Drones damaged or destroyed 86 Russian artillery targets between September 25 and October 2—a one-week record according to Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. 

And per the commander of Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized Brigade, one of the initiative’s largest beneficiaries, the unit wiped out $40 million worth of Russian hardware in September alone. But the commander, speaking to CBS News under the codename “Hasan,” said his forces will need even more drones.

Brigadier General Yuriy Shchyhol, head of Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communications and the official leading drone procurement for the military, told CNN in June that some 30 companies were mass-producing drones for defense. The goal, he said, is for the military to purchase 200,000 UAVs by year’s end. Earlier this month, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said more than 200 domestic firms have begun producing drones in some capacity.

Are ‘Dozens of Thousands’ Enough?

According to Russian-born physicist, entrepreneur, and CEO of Swiss aerospace and defense specialist Destinus, Mikhail Kokorich, Ukraine’s proliferation of drones could have a significant impact on the war.

Kokorich left Russia to found a series of aerospace companies, including Destinus and space transportation firm Momentus, throughout the 2010s. He is also a founding member of the Anti-War Committee of Russia, a group of Russian expats who oppose President Vladimir Putin’s regime and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Kokorich told FLYING that heavier deployment of loitering munitions or kamikaze drones would bring about major changes in battlefield tactics.

“It poses a significant threat to heavy machinery, as they become vulnerable to these devices, and there aren’t yet very effective methods for detection or counteraction against such threats,” said Kokorich. “The psychological impact is that it demoralizes troops, knowing that danger can strike at any moment.”

The precise targeting enabled by kamikaze drones—even over great distances—can render assets that were once useful obsolete. At scale, these shifts in importance could be more seismic.

“[Loitering munitions diminish] the significance of much heavy and light machinery—which becomes easily accessible—and amplify the role of individual personnel, soldiers, and the need for camouflage, making warfare more stretched out over distances, as these drones render battle lines transparent over long ranges,” said Kokorich.

Increased use of strategic drones that can fly tens, hundreds, or even thousands of miles, hitting targets deep behind enemy lines, could also pose problems for Russia, the Destinus CEO explained. Intercepting them with shoulder-launched missiles, for example, requires the defender to be within close range.

“Defenses like the S-300 [anti-aircraft missile system] are not very efficient and expensive for such protection…Entirely new defense systems will be needed,” said Kokorich. “This, of course, creates vulnerabilities, including for Russia and its infrastructure assets. It’s clear that Ukraine will try to ensure that Russian attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure do not go unpunished.”

While producing “dozens of thousands” of drones may move the needle for Ukraine, even more aircraft could be needed. While some survive their missions, the UAVs can be shot down or intercepted by air defenses far beyond the frontlines—or simply explode on impact, in the case of kamikaze drones—making many of them single-use. The Royal United Services Institute, a U.K.-based defense and security think tank, estimated that Ukraine loses 10,000 drones per month.

“The latest plans by Ukraine to build many thousands of drones per month reflect this attrition and the importance of maintaining a robust drone arsenal,” Dr. James Rogers, executive director of the Cornell Brooks Tech Policy Institute at Cornell University, told FLYING.

Rogers advises the United Nations and NATO on the global proliferation of drones and disruptive technologies. He continued, “In essence, drones are vital to Ukraine’s offensive power and to keep up the fight against Russia’s illegal war.”

Shmyhal earlier this month said the country was leaning heavily on DJI drones. It has reportedly received “millions” of aircraft and spare parts from the Chinese company. But obtaining drones from China has been a much slower process since the country curbed exports in August. Per Shmyhal, Ukraine’s DJI drones are mainly acquired through European intermediaries.

Kamyshin told Politico that Ukraine is also trying to increase its output of air defense systems and is looking for Western partners to invest. The country will need them to defend against the onslaught of Russian drone attacks.

Earlier this month, Ukraine struck a deal with German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall for the supply of drone reconnaissance systems. This week, the pair took the partnership to the next level with the launch of a joint defense venture.

Like Ukraine, Russia deploys loitering munitions. It uses ready-made models, such as the domestically produced Lancet-3M, as well as smaller, improvised UAVs built from modified racing drones. 

The country has a penchant for replicating Iranian Shahed drones (with Iran’s help, according to U.S. intelligence officials) and building lethal UAVs with engines from AliExpress, which is owned by Chinese conglomerate Alibaba. And, of course, DJI models are also part of the equation. Anton Siluanov, Russia’s finance minister, recently admitted “mostly all” of the military’s drones come from China.

“This war can be for decades,” Kamyshin said in an interview with Politico earlier this week. “[The] Russians can come back always.”

Kamyshin also expressed to Politico his desire for Western nations to step up their own drone, missile, and shell production. In his view, current levels are not sufficient to sustain support for parallel conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, where Israel and Hamas militants are fighting their own battle.

“The free world should be producing enough to protect itself,” Kamyshin said. “That’s why we have to produce more and better weapons to stay safe.”

In Israel, drones played a key part in Hamas’ multimodal invasion on October 7, managing to infiltrate the country’s Iron Dome counter-drone systems and fly over the billion-dollar barrier along the Israel-Gaza border. 

The U.S.-designated terrorist group’s unexpected success lent credence to a growing concern among militaries worldwide: that a small country, blockaded and deprived of key resources for decades, could still strike effectively with rudimentary drones. The attack demonstrated how even cheap, cobbled-together UAVs can pose a threat and reemphasized the need for effective counter-drone systems. It could be a sign of things to come.

“Drone use in Ukraine/Russia and in the Hamas-Israel war shows us that drones are just another weapon of war,” said Cronin. “We are developing new tactical and strategic theory as to how to use drones effectively, and that theory is being tested in the two ongoing conflicts.”

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—Jack Daleo, Modern FLYING staff writer

Now for this week’s top story:

Is the U.S. Government Secretly Harboring UFOs?

(Courtesy: C-SPAN)

What happened? In what was probably the most exciting congressional hearing ever, retired U.S. Air Force major  and former intelligence officer David Grusch told Congress that the Pentagon has been covering up a “multidecade” UFO retrieval and reverse engineering program, misusing congressional funds to do it. Grusch even alleged the government is hiding “nonhuman” spacecraft and biologics.

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Grusch’s claims: Grusch said that while serving as an intelligence officer, he was told about the secret program but denied access. At the time, he reported to the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO)—a Department of Defense program that studies unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs)—and served on two Pentagon UAP task forces.

He testified that he interviewed more than 40 witnesses, including some with direct knowledge of the project’s activities. Among other things, he said that the government is experimenting on “nonhuman” UFOs and claimed to know the location of these spacecraft. The Pentagon fiercely denied the allegations.

Searching for answers: Last week’s hearing riled up both political parties, with each calling for transparency from the DOD. Two former fighter pilots who testified alongside Grusch said the government’s system for UAP reporting is inadequate and raised concerns of intimidation and silencing of witnesses.

The DOD has a few programs dedicated to studying UAPs, including the AARO and a UAP Task Force. NASA also has a program to study the phenomenon. Most UFOs have been explained as balloons, drones, optical illusions, or other mundane causes. But a significant amount of them remain unexplained, flying and maneuvering unlike any known technology.

Quick quote: “I urge us to put aside stigma and address the security and safety issue this topic represents. If [UAPs] are foreign drones, it is an urgent national security problem. If it is something else, it is an issue for science. In either case, unidentified objects are a concern for flight safety. The American people deserve to know what is happening in our skies. It is long overdue,” said ex-Navy pilot Ryan Graves.

My take: 2001: A Space Odyssey screenwriter Arthur C. Clarke once said, “Two possibilities exist: Either we are alone in the universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.” Personally, Grusch’s testimony has made me more of a believer. Either it’s one of the biggest hoaxes of all time, or the government really does know more than it’s letting on.

But whether the mysterious objects come from Earth or beyond, pilots should be somewhat concerned. The FAA told FLYING it does not have its own dedicated UAP reporting system, instead deferring reports to the DOD. It has not made any plans to create one. And if Graves’ claim that 95 percent of UAP sightings go unreported is accurate, that’s part of the problem.

The public does not yet know what these unexplained UAP sightings are, and it may never. But we do know there are hundreds of unknown objects permeating U.S. skies, and that’s a concern for airspace safety.

Deep dive: What on Earth (or Beyond) is Going on in U.S. Skies? 

In Other News…

FAA Investigation into SpaceX Starship Stalls

(Courtesy: SpaceX)

What happened? SpaceX didn’t do its homework. The FAA told FLYING the company has yet to submit a final mishap investigation report in the wake of April’s inaugural Starship launch, which concluded with the most powerful rocket ever built exploding into flames. Without it, the company won’t be able to schedule the next Starship test flight.

Behind schedule: SpaceX and Elon Musk have been teasing a second Starship launch for months, sharing updates on testing and improvements to the company’s Boca Chica, Texas, launchpad. But it won’t happen until the FAA completes its investigation into the explosion, and that will require SpaceX to lay out the steps it will take to avoid the same outcome.

At the same time, the FAA is contending with a lawsuit from five environmental groups that allege the agency did not sufficiently plan for the ecological impact of the launch. If it loses, SpaceX and the FAA would need to deliver an environmental impact assessment (EIS)—which could take more than a year—before the next flight is approved.

Deep dive: SpaceX Yet to File Paperwork in Starship Investigation, FAA Says

Archer Extends Air Force Contract for eVTOL Testing

(Courtesy: Archer Aviation)

What happened? Electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) manufacturer Archer Aviation secured what looks like one of the largest Air Force contracts for an eVTOL company. The firm will supply the Air Force’s AFWERX Agility Prime program with up to six Midnight air taxis in a deal worth up to $142 million.

The new helicopter: Agility Prime, a program within the AFWERX innovation division focused exclusively on vertical lift technology, plans to deploy Midnight for tasks like personnel transport, logistics support, rescue operations—applications often carried out by a helicopter. But the eVTOL could offer a quieter, safer alternative.

Midnight is likely to see military action before its commercial launch, slated for 2025. Archer will hope its relationship with the Air Force helps it iron out the final kinks in its design before moving to type certification testing with the FAA.

Deep Dive: Air Force Awards Archer $142M Contract for Midnight eVTOL

And a Few More Headlines:

• China is curbing exports of certain drones—including consumer-grade models—amid reports of Chinese technology falling into Russian hands.

• The Biden administration announced that Space Command headquarters will remain in Colorado, thwarting a Donald Trump-era directive that would have moved it to Alabama.

• The U.K.’s Royal Mail launched the country’s first drone delivery service with the potential to become permanent in the Orkney Islands off the Scottish coast.

• The U.S. Agency for International Development is delivering nine drones donated by Skydio to Ukraine to document war crimes.

• Gogo Business Aviation delayed the launch of its nationwide inflight 5G network for the second time in 12 months, pushing back service to mid-2024.

Spotlight on…

Aska

[Courtesy: Aska]

If Aska sounds familiar, it may be because I featured the company in a top story a few weeks back. But the startup, which received FAA special airworthiness certification just days after competitor Alef Aeronautics, may have just leapfrogged its rival.

This week, Aska completed the first test flight of the A5, its car, eVTOL, fixed-wing glider amalgamation, while Alef has yet to announce that milestone. As far as flying cars go, I’m pretty bullish on Aska’s design: While Alef’s Model A will take off directly from the road, the A5 is designed to take off vertically from a helipad or vertiport, so little additional infrastructure is required.

But the vehicle also has short takeoff and landing (STOL) capabilities from the runway, allowing it to take off and fly like an airplane. That versatility should open up plenty of launch sites and help Aska comply with airspace regulations. So, while the A5 isn’t the prettiest to look at (see photo above) it’s packed with functionality and could be one of the first flying cars on the market.

When exactly that market will form, however, is another story.

Deep Dive: Aska Completes First Test Flight of Its ‘Street Legal eVTOL’

On the Horizon…

There’s only one notable regulatory update this week, and it comes from across the Pacific.

Several Chinese agencies on Monday announced the implementation of new export controls for certain drones. Taking effect in September, the restrictions are expected to last two years and cover both military and civilian models. The measure comes amid reports of Chinese drones ending up in the Russian military, with some civilian models even being converted for military use.

Specifically, the controls will cover drones that can fly beyond the view of the operator or for longer than 40 minutes, carry more than 7 kilograms (about 15 pounds), or throw objects using attachments. Other restrictions relate to onboard equipment like sensors and cameras, engines, communications gear, and even anti-drone systems.

To export their products, drone manufacturers will require approval from the Chinese government and will be responsible for proving their drones won’t be used to support “mass destruction, terrorist activities, or military purposes.” Civilian drones not included in the controls will not be allowed to be shipped out for military purposes.

Mark Your Calendars

Each week, I’ll be running through a list of upcoming industry events. The FAA Drone Symposium and Advanced Air Mobility Summit wrapped up Thursday in Baltimore, but here are a few conferences to keep an eye on:

• Defense and Security Equipment International 2023—September 12-15 in London
• DroneX 2023—September 26-27 in London
• World Aviation Festival—September 26-28 in Lisbon, Portugal
• Airtaxi World Congress—October 2-5 in San Francisco
• FAI World Drone Racing Championship—October 6-9 near Seoul, South Korea
• Intergeo 2023—October 10-12 in Berlin
• Dronitaly—October 11-13 in Bologna, Italy
• Commercial UAV Expo—October 23-26 in Las Vegas
• World’s Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Conference—November 12-14 in Jerusalem

Tweet of the Week

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The post Is the U.S. Government Secretly Harboring UFOs? appeared first on FLYING Magazine.